BULLISH SENTIMENT REMAINS VERY HIGH

26 November 2010 by TPC 0 Comments

Sentiment readings remain at elevated levels this week as the market remains near the highs of the year and investors continue to believe that stocks have only one direction to go – higher.

According to the AAII sentiment survey bullish sentiment rebounded to 47.4%. ? All it took was a brief -3.5% decline in the S&P 500 to scare small investors last week and then a brief rebound was enough to make them confident again.? Charles Rotblut of AAII details the results:

“Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 7.4 percentage points to 47.4%. This was the 12th consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been above its historical average of 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain essentially flat over the next six months, edged up 0.4 percentage points to 27.9%. This was the 16th consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 7.8 percentage points to 24.7%. This is a four-week low for bearish sentiment. The historical average is 30%.”

This week’s Investor’s Intelligence survey saw a modest decline in bullish sentiment to 55.7%.? This remains very high in historical terms.

All in all, investors remain convinced that the stock market simply cannot decline and the persistent buy the dip phenomenon that we’ve seen in recent months is a clear sign that portfolio managers are eager to snatch up stocks into year-end.? A sustained bear decline might not occur until 2011.

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BULLISH SENTIMENT REMAINS ELEVATED

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Sentiment levels were mixed this week with a move higher in the Investor’s Intelligence survey and a decline in the AAII small investor survey.? AAII bullishness declined to 48.2% from ...

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GOLD SENTIMENT TURNS SLIGHTLY BEARISH

By decision point

After recently tried to go vertical, but departed a week for a correction.Comme you see on the graph below, the correction was minor, but there has been sufficient to transform a slightly bearish sentiment measurement.

Central Trust (GTU) is a mutual fund closed at the end, which means that it trades like a stock on NYSE.The Fund owns only gold - metal inventory step.Closed-end funds trade based on the bid and ask this fact without regard to their net asset value (NAV) points, they can share at a price which is a Prime or a discount to their supervisor NAV.En premium or a discount, we can get an idea of the feeling distributed to increase or decrease of gold.

As the closing session of Thursday, finished traded to a slight reduction in its NAV, which I thought was quite unusual, considering the general enthusiasm for metal.

Take a blow to look longer term below we can see that this is the first finished sold at a discount since mid-2008.We also see that 2008 was common to sell at a discount, even if gold was in a trend already finished before. This changed in 2008 and 2009, when the global financial crisis began to take place and the desire to own gold has increased so frenzied finished sold to approaching 35 per cent of the premiums frenetic - level.

So, what that means?To begin with, I do not think that we are headed for the type of discount observed in 2006 and 2007 .c ' is that the world wasn't all that interested in gold, and finished a nice discount in what was essentially an increase or the marché.Nous are now in a time where the world was "discovered" gold and gold is really taken seriously as a cover of inflation and a shield against the Fed political radicals.

Nevertheless, it is interesting to see premium for months, most of which was to increase the market drop. For the moment, I think that having to interpret such as nervousness on the part of traders, such as gold stored in record heights. Given that we look at it as an indicator of sentiment, relatively current Swale probably indicate that low trading is near.

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The contents of this site is provided as general information only and should not be construed as investment advice.All content on the site should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or participate in any particular strategy of trade or investment.The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the companies affiliated to the author (s).The opinions of all the guest authors or contributors and will differ from those of m. Roche.These opinions do not necessarily represent the views or Mr. Roche.Les authors investment decisions can or may not have a position in any security referenced herein are or may not ask to do business with one another or companies referred to by this site Web.Toute action you take information and analysis on this site is your responsabilité.Consultez ultimately your advisor placement before taking an investment decision.

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SENTIMENT REMAINS VERY OPTIMISTIC

22 October 2010 by PTC0 Comments ?

Sentiment remains high this week equity rally now injected investors in any confiance.Le optimistic feeling Institute has jumped to 49.6% - well above the historical average of 39%.Charles Rotblut Institute says that the data are consistent with high optimism:

"This show results is that individual investors remain optimistic about the direction this fall bourse.rebond short term, was optimistic about the direction of the price of shares, individual investors, but many have still concerns of the economy, interest rates and the Federal deficit.

Intelligence investors showed more moderate signs of only to 45.1 per cent.

Source: Institute, II

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The content of this site is provided as general information only and should not be considered advice investment .all the content of the site should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or participate in any particular trading strategy or investment.The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the companies affiliated to the author (s).The opinions of all the guest authors or contributors and will differ from those of m. Roche.These opinions do not necessarily represent the opinions or Mr. Roche investment decisions.The authors are, or may not have a position in any security referenced herein and can or cannot seek to do business with one another or companies referred to by this site Web.Toute action you take information and analysis on this site is your responsabilité.Consultez ultimately your investment advisor before taking an investment decision.

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