Showing posts with label THOUGHTS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label THOUGHTS. Show all posts

Sunday, November 28, 2010

DEEP THOUGHTS FROM DAVID ROSENBERG

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27 November 2010 by TPC 1 Comment

Via WealthTrack:

“On this week’s Consuelo Mack WealthTrack, a Financial Thought Leader who called the credit and housing bubbles way ahead of the pack. Gluskin Sheff’s prescient Chief Economist, David Rosenberg shares his economic and market outlook, plus advice on how to invest in it.”

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The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The opinions of all guest authors or contributors can and will differ from those of Mr. Roche. These opinions do not necessarily represent the opinions or investment decisions of Mr. Roche. The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein and may or may not seek to do business with one another or companies mentioned via this website. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

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Friday, November 26, 2010

DEEP THOUGHTS BY JIM ROGERS

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25 November 2010 by TPC 0 Comments

Howard Lindzon of StockTwits had Jim Rogers on StockTwits TV yesterday and the interview is a must see:

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The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The opinions of all guest authors or contributors can and will differ from those of Mr. Roche. These opinions do not necessarily represent the opinions or investment decisions of Mr. Roche. The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein and may or may not seek to do business with one another or companies mentioned via this website. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

A brief note on comments – The increase in users in recent months has resulted in an increase in unproductive comments. Any user who engages in the use of racial epithets or uses the comment section as a place to insult other users will be banned from the site. The comment section is welcome to all readers who are interested in asking pertinent questions and/or engaging in thoughtful, intelligent, and productive debate. In short, just be nice. Thanks.

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Friday, November 19, 2010

Final Thoughts On The New NBCU Structure

Nellie Andreeva

UPDATES NBC Universal's New Organizational Structure Revealed

UPDATES COMCAST-NBCU: Ted Harbert And Bob Greenblatt To Run NBC, Pat Fili-Krushel Also Coming

The organizers of the Saban Free Clinic's Annual Dinner Gala must have been scrambling today to update all the materials for the Monday event with the new title for the night's top honoree, Robert Greenblatt, who today was named chairman of NBC Entertainment as part of the post-merger management structure of NBC Universal unveiled by the company's incoming CEO Steve Burke.

Greenblatt, who will oversee the network and sister studio UMS, won't be conducting any business, including meeting with his staff or talking to agents, until the merger is approved, something sources suggest may happen in mid-January. By then, the broadcast networks will be in the thick of picking up drama pilots, so Greenblatt would have to jump right in. He is expected to begin familiarizing himself with NBC's development right away and will probably read pilot scripts as they come in to be able to start making greenlight decisions on Day 1. Drama has been a particularly vulnerable area for NBC with no new series introduced in the past couple of years lasting more than a season and a weak freshman drama class this fall. That makes the future of NBC's head of drama Laura Lancaster uncertain. Greenblatt is still a ways away from making any personnel changes, but after he officially starts, he is expected to make some. In today's memo, there was good news for 2 NBC veterans, Marc Graboff, chairman of NBC Entertainment and UMS, and Angela Bromstad, president of primetime entertainment. While the announcement didn't mention their titles, leaving the door open to them changing, they were mentioned by name as reporting to Greenblatt in the new chain of command. That means that both are factoring into new Burke's immediate plans for NBC. From then on, it will be up to Greenblatt. While it is not clear if or how Bromstad would fit in long-term, with his deep institutional knowledge and deal-making expertise, Graboff, fresh off signing a new 3-year deal, is probably safe. As for outsiders Greenblat might bring in, speculation seems to be focusing on his former workplace Showtime, with Danielle Gelbar, who also worked with Greenblatt at Fox, most talked about. Because his appointment is not official yet, Greenblatt did not do interviews today, but here is how he described his dream next job back in June when he left Showtime: “It's all about innovating, building or rebuilding something. I don’t feel like walking into a place that needs a new head. It needs to be a place where I have to rethink the whole system.” Well, with the in-need-of-rebuilding NBC, Greenblatt is getting exactly what he wished for. And speaking of wishes, Ted Harbert, who is being named chairman of NBC Broadcasting, must have dreamed of triumphantly returning to NBC since he was fired as head of NBC Studios by Jeff Zucker in 2003. Of course, a similar fate has recently befallen Zucker, who was fired by Burke in September.

As for NBCU's new (old) cable queens, Bonnie Hammer and Lauren Zalaznick, Hammer, who is being named chairman, NBC Universal Cable ?Entertainment and Cable Studios, continues to be the only one to have "cable" in her title as she added the bulk of Comcast's entertainment cable networks, including E! and G4, to her portfolio of USA, SyFy and Universal Cable Prods. (Note to job-hunting executives: E! is now looking for a new president with Harbert moving to NBC). Meanwhile, Zalaznick, whose new title is chairman, NBC Universal ?Entertainment & Digital Networks and Integrated Media, already had an unusual mix of responsibilities, including oversight of cable channels Bravo and Oxygen, digital portal iVillage and social initiatives? such as Green Is Universal. The new additions to her hodgepodge portfolio are also all over the map, including Spanish-language broadcaster Telemundo and NBCU's interest in PBS Sprout. (She is also adding Comcast cable channels Style and mun2 and digital properties Daily Candy and Fandango.)

And hinting at the pecking order at the company, in outlining the new structure Burke listed the top executives of NBCU'a thriving cable division - Hammer, Zalaznick and new cable ad sales head Dave Cassaro - first, followed by Harbert, Greenblatt and new NBC ad sales chief Marianne Gambelli.

Overall, this was probably the most dragged-out management restructuring in recent media industry history, with the exact titles of NBCU's top TV executives as the only element of suspense left for the official announcement after most of the information had already leaked online. And the new structure probably features more chairmen (6 total) than any other media company in recent history. That last fact prompted the so-called Masked Scheduler, a (not so) anonymous TV insider with ties to NBC, to tweet this morning: "We'll find out how many Chairpersons it takes to screw in a lightbulb.") But when the announcement was finally made today, it was clean and straightforward, coming in the form of an internal memo from Burke whose reputation to is for being straighforward. Of course, because Comcast does not have regulatory approval yet for the merger with NBCU, the company couldn't make a public announcement of the executive realignment, but not having to sift through a press release full of platitudes and puffy quotes was actually pretty refreshing.

TV Editor Nellie Andreeva - tip her here.

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Tuesday, November 9, 2010

A FEW THOUGHTS ON THE EMPLOYMENT FIGURES

By Dr. Lacy Hunt, Hoisington Investment Mgt. Co. (courtesy of John Mauldin)

The October employment situation was dramatically weaker than the headline 159k increase in the payroll employment measure. The broader household employment fell 330k. The only reason that the unemployment rate held steady is that 254k dropped out of the labor force. The civilian labor force participation rate fell to a new low of 64.5%, indicating that people do not believe that jobs are available, but this serves to hold the unemployment rate down. In addition, the employment-to-population ratio fell to 58.3%, the lowest level in nearly 30 years.

While not actually knowing what happened to the net job change in the non-surveyed small business sector, the Labor Department assumed that 61k jobs were created in that sector. This assumption is not supported by such important private surveys as those from the National Federation of Independent Business or by ADP. Just a month ago the Labor Department had to revise downward the job totals due to a serious overcount of their statistical artifact known as the Birth/Death Model.

The most distressing aspect of this report is that the US economy lost another 124K full-time jobs, thus bringing the five-month loss to 1.1 million in this most critical of all employment categories. In an even more significant sign, the level of full-time employment in October was at the same level that was reached originally in December 1999, almost 11 years ago (see attached chart). An economy cannot generate income growth by continuing to substitute part-time work for full-time employment. This loss of full-time jobs goes a long way to explain why real personal income less transfer payments has been unchanged since May.

The weakness in real income is probably lost in an environment in which the Fed is touting the gain in stock prices and consumer wealth resulting from the latest quantitative easing (QE), but QE has unintended negative consequences for real household income. Due to higher prices of energy and food commodities, QE may result in less funds for discretionary spending for consumers whose incomes are stagnant. Also, with five-year yields falling below 1%, rates on CDs and other types of short-term bank deposits will decline, also cutting into household income. At the end of the day these effects will be more powerful than any stock-price boost in consumer spending, which, as always, will be very small and slow to materialize.

To have a broad-based recovery, the manufacturing sector must participate. Contrary to the ISM survey, manufacturing jobs fell 7k, the third consecutive drop, resulting in a net loss over the past three months of 35k.

In summary, the latest economic developments indicate a slight worsening of underlying fundamental conditions.

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The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The opinions of all guest authors or contributors can and will differ from those of Mr. Roche. These opinions do not necessarily represent the opinions or investment decisions of Mr. Roche. The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein and may or may not seek to do business with one another or companies mentioned via this website. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

A brief note on comments – The increase in users in recent months has resulted in an increase in unproductive comments. Any user who engages in the use of racial epithets or uses the comment section as a place to insult other users will be banned from the site. The comment section is welcome to all readers who are interested in asking pertinent questions and/or engaging in thoughtful, intelligent, and productive debate. In short, just be nice. Thanks.

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