TOBIN’S Q UPDATE

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Doug Short posts a series of long term charts of Tobin's Q, calculated today from the federal reserve's z.1 release.

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'Biggest Loser' Strike Update: Production To Resume On Monday With Replacements

EXCLUSIVE... 3RD UPDATE FRIDAY 11PM: It's war! I hear that The Biggest Loser producers, Shine Group's Reveille and JD Roth and Todd Nelson's Eyeworks-owned 3 Ball Prods., are planning to resume production on the weight-loss reality series on Monday morning after a week-long shutdown because of the IATSE-backed strike by crew members. But the restart of filming is not the result of an agreement with IATSE. I hear the producers are bringing in replacements and the show will continue to be non-union. (In a letter sent to the crew members on Tuesday, the full text of which is displayed in the 2nd Updatedbelow, the producers threaten striking crew members that their jobs may be lost if they hire permanent replacements.) I hear that no Biggest Loser crew members are expected to cross the picket line on Monday. "Should be ugly," one insider says. Meanwhile, I hear that the Biggest Loser employees who are striking to go union have received support from the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, a voluntary federation of 57 national and international unions, which has issued a "Do Not Patronize" sanction against the Biggest Loser producers. The companies' put on AFL-CIO "Do Not Patronize" list "have been identified as unfair employers and adversaries of the labor movement, and all trade unionists and friends of organized labor are urged not to patronize those businesses," according to the organization's Web site.

EXCLUSIVE... 2ND UPDATE THURSDAY 4PM: It's Day 3 of IATSE's strike against veteran NBC reality series The Biggest Loser and the production companies behind it, mainly Reveille Prods. and 3 Ball Prods. As we first reported, the strike started on Monday night when the show's crew walked off the set. The picketing, which started yesterday at the production location aka The Ranch in the Santa Monica Mountains, spread today to the Redondo Beach offices of 3 Ball where the show is being edited. Production on the series's upcoming 11th season continues to be halted. Meanwhile, the producers have sent a stern Facts About a Strike letter to the crew, stressing that they may hire permanent replacements for the striking members. (letter posted below.) The strike is taking a toll on the striking employees. "Most of the crew is bummed, but determined," one insider said. "Many have been on the show for 4 or 5 seasons. They are sticking together, many on the picket lines."

The main issue for the crew is that, because Biggest Loser has no deal with IATSE, the crew members can't accrue their union days to qualify for health and pension benefits while working on the show. Since Biggest Loser is a reality series on an atypical schedule as it films 4 to 5 days a week from September to March, many crew members have to leave for a period of time so they can get their IA days on other shows while they would rather stay on Biggest Loser full-time and make their union days there. The Biggest Loser crew usually consists of 90-100 people, 40 of whom are IA members. I hear the show adheres to union rules in terms of work schedule and that crew rates are substantially above union minimum. But word is that there has not been a crew raise since season 6. That has coincided with the current economic downturn, and the ratings for the long-running show have begun to trend downwards lately. But the raise freeze has left employees a little frustrated as they get to shoot many paid product placement segments on the show. "The crew wonders where all that money goes," one person said. And while the producers explain in the letter why they don't want the show to go union, a move that would allow crew members to get their health benefits through IATSE, they don't offer company-based health benefits as an alternative with the argument that they pay above union rates, so crew members should be able to afford their own health care. (which most of them can't)

Will the strike find a successful resolution before the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday? It's hard to say because complicating the things is a possible negotiating tactic by IATSE which has been in separate negotiations with Reveille for the company's new Paula Abdul reality show Live to Dance on CBS. Word is that the union has pulled that negotiating team and are trying to leverage all Reveille/Shine shows to go union. I hear that has pissed Biggest Loser union members off to no end because none of them want their jobs to be a negotiating pawn. Word is that ultimately IATSE may do a separate deal for The Biggest Loser but the back-and-forth has led to further delays. IATSE first talked with the Biggest Loser producers about a deal in Season 4 when the show signed with the DGA but those talks went nowhere.

November 9, 2010

FACTS ABOUT A STRIKE

We understand that the IATSE is trying to call some of our employees out on strike. Before you decide what to do, think about the following factual answers to typical questions about strikes:

1.????? IF EMPLOYEES GO OUT ON STRIKE, WILL THEY CONTINUE TO GET PAID?
Striking employees aren’t working so they don’t get paid for the time they are striking.. The Company will not pay wages during a strike and neither will the union.
2.????? CAN EMPLOYEES???? COLLECT UNEMPLOYMENT?? COMPENSA TION DURING A STRIKE?
No. California will not pay unemployment compensation to strikers out of work because of a strike.
3.????? IF THE UNION CALLS A STRIKE, CAN THE COMPANY CONTINUE TO OPERATE?
Yes. The Company can and will continue to operate during a strike with employees who want to work and if necessary with permanent replacements (see next Q and A).
4.????? COULD I BE REPLACED IF THE UNION CALLS A STRIKE?
Yes. Under the law, if the union calls a strike to try to force the Company to agree to the union’s demands (called an “economic strike”), the Company may replace the strikers with permanent replacements. If you strike and are permanently replaced, you have no right to be reinstated to your old job until vacancies become available and you are reinstated from a preferential hiring list.
5.????? WHY IS THE COMPANY OPPOSED TO THIS UNION?
The threat of strikes is a major reason the Company is opposed to this union. We also don’t see why you should have to pay union dues, fees, fines and assessments in order to work here. Some of our employees have worked for the Company for years. We strongly prefer to solve problems directly with our employees, without the involvement of a union with its own agenda.
If you would like more information about your rights or the rules governing this situation, please contact the Regional Office of the National Labor Relations Board, telephone (213) 894-5200 or (310) 235-7352 or go to www.nlrb.gov.

1ST UPDATE WEDNESDAY PM: IATSE has put out this statement confirming?my story that it is on strike against The Biggest Loser. The relationship between the Hollywood guilds and reality shows?has been very problematic.

Los Angeles – The IATSE has confirmed that it is on strike against the reality series, “The Biggest Loser,” and its production entities, Reveille Productions, 25/7 Productions and 3 Ball Productions.? This top rated show for NBC is now filming its tenth season.? The work action follows a vote by 100% of the production crew members to support the IA.? AFTRA and DGA already have agreements with the production.

IA International President Matthew D. Loeb said, “This is a top-rated prime-time television show, and the crew remains unified.? The strike is the result of a unanimous decision by members of the production crew that they get a contract similar to others covering these types of productions, and we are resolute in getting it for them.”

EXCLUSIVE TUESDAY 7PM: Production on NBC's veteran reality series The Biggest Loser has been put on hold following a walkout by the show's crew in an effort to unionize. I hear that representatives from IATSE, the union that represents most film and TV crew members, showed up on the set of The Biggest Loser last night and led the crew off the set. As a result, filming on the show was suspended. The Biggest Loser also didn't shoot today, while representatives from IATSE and Reveille, which produces the series with 3 Ball Prods., have been discussing a potential agreement. There have been rumblings that the walkout was the culmination of ongoing efforts by the Biggest Loser crew to go union but show insiders tell me that the producers were not aware of such attempts and were surprised by the labor action last night. I'll be updating the story as it evolves.

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Forget Eisner: Is Chernin on the Forum? Update: relative risk of this "path below 20%.

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UPDATE 1:30 PM: I've now had time to do some reporting of my own to put perspective on the Wall Street Journal's -- and this idea of Peter Chernin taking over Tribune Co is a real longshot.?Insiders tell me that Chernin has had one meeting with one creditor who asked him about the CEO job.?Chernin said no. Then he was asked about the chairman's job. Chernin said unlikely.?"They asked him if he would keep an open mind. He said OK," one of my sources says. "He's had?no meetings or discussions whatsoever with any other creditors,?the creditors' committee, with the board, with management, etc. And he is not part of any process now." I'm told what's happening is frankly no different than almost every media deal cooking right now where someone comes to Chernin and asks?if he would be willing to?run the company.?My insiders put the odds of Chernin taking over Tribune Co?"way below 20%". Meanwhile,?the best guess is that the?timing for change at?Tribune Co is probably February-March?at the earliest.

SATURDAY 5 AM: I've been traveling only to return to some interesting news reports: now Peter Chernin is on the short list to possibly?replace Sam Zell as chairman of the?Chicago-based Tribune Co when it emerges from bankruptcy soon. Hollywood always knew that the former News Corp No. 2 who's now the? Fox TV and film mega-producer?had a?second act in him as a Big Media mogul. Plus, unlike Disney's FrankenEisner, Chernin never made it a habit to lie to the media. And Peter left News Corp on his own accord under his own terms, unlike Michael who was given the bum's rush?after a 43% no-confident vote from Disney shareholders and losing the chairman title in 2004. The news that Chernin is one of the candidates being "sounded out" by Tribune Co's creditors comes on the eve of an expected?bankruptcy exit filing. The plan has the support of the leading lenders and debtholders one of whom, John Angelo of NYC hedge fund Angelo Gordon & Co, was trying to muscle his childhood pal Eisner into the top spot. The selection of Eisner, who's been buying up Tribune debt on Angelo's advice,?would be a huge mistake. The selection of Chernin, however, would make a lot of sense. "People familiar with the matter said Mr. Chernin is being considered, and might be interested in, heading Tribune's new board. His spokesman said he isn't interested in the CEO job but declined to comment on whether he was approached about or is interested in becoming chairman," reported the Wall Street Journal which is owned by News Corp which used to employ Chernin and therefore has an inside track on the info.

Right now, both top jobs at Tribune Co are vacant because of the management chaos there following revelations of a frat house culture that permeated the poorly run place.?Randy Michaels?just resigned as CEO, and Zell can't be replaced quickly enough. Right now a 4-person caretaker management is in charge, including LA Times publisher Eddy Hartenstein who used to run DirecTV. According to news reports, Tribune creditors started seeking new board members this past summer via executive recruiters Spencer Stuart while the creditors and lenders themselves have been feeling out potential chairman and CEO candidates from among the past and present Big Media moguls. The publishing and broadcasting company?has been in Chapter 11 since December 2008.

You may recall my reporting that?Eisner's BFF wanted him to replace?Zell atop Tribune Co once it emerged from bankruptcy, which owns the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune,?other major newspapers as well as 23 TV stations.?Not only are Eisner and Angelo childhood pals who grew up together but "he was my sidekick from the age of 6," Eisner said in his autobiography about Angelo, whose mother was in turn Eisner's mother's BFF.?Even now, the two men remain best friends and Angelo's son Jesse (an editor at the New York Post) is Eisner's godson. Eisner even devotes a chapter to Angelo Gordon & Co in his?new book, Working Together: Why Great Partnerships Succeed and describes Angelo as someone who “I know as well as perhaps anyone, aside from my own wife and children.” Angelo Gordon & Co has a whopping $8.6 billion in claims on Tribune.?Many examples of Eisner's history of lying to the media when he was chairman/CEO of the Walt Disney Co came out during the shareholders lawsuit against Disney because of Eisner's hiring and firing of Michael Ovitz when attorneys compared his public statements about the company to his private memos detailing what was really happening. He also became infamous for putting together one of the most "insider" boards in corporate history. Eisner finally left Disney in 2005?with his tail between his legs and has?been dabbling in Internet content and television programming. Sure, Eisner is unquestionably a shrewd and successful businessman. But he is the wrong man to lead a Big Media company especially one like Tribune needing to restore its?integrity.

By contrast, Chernin?had every opportunity to?stay?as chairman Rupert Murdoch's president/COO, so his?2009 decision to walk away when his 5-year contract expired June 30th after a prolonged negotiation?was shocking to Hollywood and Wall Street alike.?Then again,?Chernin himself liked to tell people, "I'm just warming the seat for a Murdoch." Chernin?departed with an unprecedented-for-Hollywood golden parachute,?undoubtedly the biggest and richest producing deal for?the Fox studio/network because among other things it?included his rightling, to "require" the company to enter into a 6-year deal to buy films or TV shows from him. And he's been busy for the past 18 months getting many projects going.

A literature major from the University of California Berkeley, Chernin got his show business start making movies of the week. The 59-year-old joined News Corp in 1989 and has served as prez/COO since October 1996. He occupied one of the biggest infotainment jobs in the world, what with News Corp having total assets of about $50 billion and total annual revenues of approximately $33 billion before the financial crisis. He ran a diversified global media company with operations in eight industry segments: filmed entertainment; television; cable network programming; direct broadcast satellite television; magazines and inserts; newspapers and information services; book publishing; and other. Chernin had an "out" clause in his contract in case he was offered something better, like a chairman or CEO job. He was?rumored for top jobs?at Apple, Yahoo, even the Obama adminsitration.?On the other hand, at the time of his leaving, Chernin’s total compensation package of $28.8 million made him better paid than Rupert Murdoch, who earned $27.5 million and?controlled roughly 40% of News Corps stock.?I do know it grated on Chernin?that Murdoch often pursued?an inchoate business strategy that revolved around Rupert's whims, like buying the Wall Street Journal's parent company Dow Jones, even if they didn't make sense financially. I've no doubt Chernin could fix Tribune Co.

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Update: Fox-Cablevision Spat claims, faces still far apart baseball game transport

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UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM: Cablevision subscribers won't be able to watch today's Phillies-Giants game, which stars in an hour on Fox. Following the blackout of Fox's programming on Cablevision systems at midnight ET last night, the two companies today held talks on a new carriage agreement that would restore the signal of Fox stations Fox 5 and My9 to some 3 million Cablevision customers in the New York area, but "no material progress was made and the companies remain far apart," a source said. Both sides agreed to continue talking tomorrow when Fox carries NFL football.?“It is shameful for News Corp. to use Major League Baseball and NFL games to hold viewers hostage in order to extract tens of millions from Cablevision customers," Cablevision just said in a statement, asking News Corp. to agree to binding arbitration, something the company has rejected, and return the Fox programming on Cablevision. Since the blackout, here have been a slew of statements from officials urging Fox and Cablevision to reach a deal or keep the Fox signal on while negotiating. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski said he was “disappointed” by the service interruption.?Sen. John Kerry, who vowed to get the FCC involved if the Fox-Time Warner dispute at the end of last year escalated to a blackout, today promised a “systemic reform” of the retransmission rules system to prevent such blackouts. Meanwhile, there have been numerous complaints from Cablevision customers and advocacy groups that Cablevision broadband subscribers' Internet access to Fox programming on Hulu and Fox.com has also been blocked by the network.

PREVIOUS FRIDAY 9PM: Another week, so another network is getting dropped in a nasty carriage dispute. But this one also affects the baseball playoffs. News Corp is already grappling with the loss of carriage of FX, National Geographic Channel, and 19 regional sports?network on Dish starting two weeks ago. Now the company's broadcast network Fox is off Cablevision after the two sides couldn't reach an agreement on a new deal. Cablevision at midnight ET stopped carrying the local Fox

stations Fox 5 and My9?as well as Nat Geo Wild and Fox Business Network. That also puts in jeopardy the upcoming baseball playoff games and the World Series on Fox for 3 million Cablevision customers in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. The ALCS series between the Yankees and the Rangers runs on TBS this year. Still, it is the final stage of the playoffs, and the blackout comes only hours before the Saturday night Game 1 of MLB's National League championship series between the Giants and the Phillies on Fox.

Fox has been aggressive in pursuing retransmission consent fees for its stations, which led to a standoff with Time Warner Cable at the end of last year. According to Mike Hopkins, president of Fox Networks Affiliate Sales, Cablevision pulled out of the negotiations at 8pm today declaring "impasse." In its statement, Fox quoted a SNL Kagan report that "in 2009 Cablevision paid itself and charged other pay-TV companies considerably more for just two of its channels (MSG and MSG Plus) than it paid Fox for 12 of its channels."

According to Cablevision, the company "already pays News Corp. more than $70 million a year for its channels, and News Corp. is demanding more than $150 million a year for the same exact programming." Cablevision claims that it offered News Corp. "as much or more for Fox 5 as it pays for NBC, ABC, CBS and Univision stations in the market" but "News Corp. is continuing to demand more for Fox 5 than Cablevision pays all of the other broadcast stations combined." Here is more from the two companies' statements:

For the third time in less than a year, Cablevision has caused a television service disruption in the New York and Philadelphia areas by demanding preferential terms and allowing its agreements to carry WNYW FOX5, WWOR My9, WTXF FOX29, FOX Deportes, FOX Business Network, and Nat Geo WILD to expire.?Beginning on Saturday, October 16, Cablevision subscribers will lose FOX5, My9 and FOX29, home of Major League Baseball’s National League Championship Series and the World Series, the NFL on FOX,?American Idol,?Glee,?House,The Simpsons,?Family Guy, the local news and other prominent programming.

“In an effort to avoid this very situation, we started this process in May and made numerous reasonable proposals to Cablevision,” said Mike Hopkins, President, Fox Networks Affiliate Sales and Marketing. “However, we remain far apart and Cablevision has made it clear that they do not share our view regarding the value of Fox’s networks. We remain willing to negotiate and hope that future talks ultimately will be productive, but as of now Cablevision has declined to counter our most recent proposal. ?Regrettably, their efforts were focused more on calls for government intervention than constructive negotiations.”

?

Cablevision spent most of Friday refusing to engage in constructive bargaining – instead issuing statements calling for the FCC and others to mandate binding arbitration.? Fox rejected those demands saying that Cablevision needed to stop hiding behind a call for government intervention and negotiate in good faith.?Fox stated that direct business-to-business negotiation is the only way to resolve the issue, and noted that Cablevision is being hypocritical by claiming that Fox’s proposals are not fair.

News Corp.’s decision to remove Fox programming from three million Cablevision households is a black eye for broadcast television in America.??News Corp has refused to negotiate in good faith and rejected calls from dozens of political leaders to not pull the plug and join Cablevision in binding arbitration.??We demand that News Corp. put the viewers ahead of its own greed and immediately restore these channels to our customers and agree to binding arbitration to reach a fair agreement.

News Corp.’s pattern of destructive tactics has become clear.??First, they terrorized Time Warner Cable customers for weeks; then they pulled regional sports and cable channels off Dish Network; and now they have pulled the plug on Fox 5 and My9 for 3 million Cablevision households.??Further, they are now threatening to pull their broadcast stations away from Dish Network’s 14 million customers in two weeks.??It is clear that News Corp. will pull the plug on any viewer, served by any cable, satellite or phone company, to get the money they want.

On Friday, News Corp. even flatly rejected the FCC’s call for independent mediation.??More than 100 political leaders called upon Cablevision and News Corp. to keep the channels on while they continued to negotiate, and 36 elected officials called upon Cablevision and News Corp. to submit to binding arbitration, to ensure no disruption of programming for customers. Cablevision agreed, but News Corp. rejected this fair approach.

TV Editor Nellie Andreeva - tip her here.

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