Research published by Yale Hirsch in Almanac the Trader shows that year market is divided into two periods of six months seasonality. Leave from May 1 to October 31 is bad depending on the season and the market ends more often lower was at the beginning of the period. Leave from 1 November to 30 April favoured depending on the season and the market more often completes the highest period.(See Sy Harding Riding bear book for more details on this topic) .alors statistical average results for these two periods are very convincing, trying to get real-time market in hopes of capturing these results is not always as easy as it seems.
Here are two graphs for one year commencing on 1 May and end on 30 April.Half left chart shows the unfavourable period may October and half right show favourable November in the period from April.Shows green line early favourable period, the red line to the beginning of the period défavorable.Comme you can see, regardless of how the market keeps on average, each year is different and presents its own challenges and there's no guarantee that any given period will be consistent with fact moyenne.En, it is clear, at least during the last years, Bull, bear market pressures will overwrite the seasonal trends more often than otherwise.
This table is a snapshot of the part of the last bear market, and the two periods were unfavourable.
In the following table you can see that the current bull market began shortly before the unfavourable period and, consequently, throughout the year has been favourable.
Final table is the recently completed 2010 from May to October 2010 period, which was to be negative, but it has été.Partie April top correction has occurred in the first third of the period, but the rally that ensued made up for the losses and the Dow Jones index managed to finish slightly above its point of departure (from noon Friday) period .Notez that horrible historically September and October beat the averages were positive.
As we enter the next six months of positive seasonality, it seems likely that it will begin with a correction. I think that will be set the tone for the entire six months, but it sure started it out on the wrong foot.
Conclusion: Be aware of current seasonal trends, but firstly follow the primary trend.
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