Tuesday, October 19, 2010

CATALYSTS FOR A REVERSAL OF THE U.S. DOLLAR

By Rohan in the journal data

Markets Exchange are prone to over enthusiasm.Fasting stimulated, big volume of commerce offers accelerated crédibles.Un catchy concept ideas incubator can collect quickly for a term of life of its own - escape the bounds of the interbank market and take a feeling in extreme conditions.

The $ US is the focal point of the last whim of sweeping the financial landscape - flaming QE2 immolation self-esteem américaine.Les economy signs are that this idea approaching date given consommation.étant trade risk has been feeding off the coast of the weakness of the US$, think we can expect any tracing work its way through products, emerging markets, credit spreads and, finally, actions. ?

?This sign?

Commitments of Traders reports last week had the futures markets to place historically was a prerequisite for a reversal of trend .c ' is a bit incongruous in the context that we are looking for extreme positions, but the futures markets are a mere drop in the ocean against the FX market sale libre.Nous will be looking to see if large marketers continue to sell the $ US or starting positions long building. Recent history suggests that they have the form by calling the turn. (Map of Finviz)

Measures of sense - as the Traders specified narrative last week (you can find the chart here) - feeling Daily index developed by trade - future .com is plumbing new depths which indicate the market is extreme in their views, if positions.

November meeting were held – the event trigger over anticipated infiltrates more près.Bernanke and his chums are in a corner of EQ with reasonable dimensions than any what they whisper will fail to meet the hype. In this context, it is interesting to consider the recent collapse in volatility equity seems to be the result of punters the upside sales - rather that purchase. Call option-doped volume then even as the VIX dropped back to 20.

Political imperative - enter stage left Timothy Geithner (here) suggesting that administration will argue the value of the dollar in the short term.No politician worthy of its name is openly support the "currency wars '-especially when he shared the same plate marinated Ginger (G-20 website here)."

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